Monday, December 17, 2018

Five Keys to an Islanders Mid-Season Breakout



Our New York Islanders are 9th in the east (4th in the Metro) with a 15-12-4 record in 31 games at 34 pts. Just 2 behind the Penguins for the final wildcard spot. Since we last spoke, the team has had some frustrating lows to go along with their growing list of improvements from last season.


The overall defensive game is still a strength along with their goalkeeping. The Isles are second in the east with a 91 gaa, but have only scored 89 goals for, ranking them 15th in the conference. Just Carolina is worse with 84. “The Isles are 13-1-1 when they score at least three goals (including shootout winners) and are 2-11-3 when they do not.” – Hornick. The offensive play of Josh Bailey, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Valtteri Filppula and Anthony Beauvillier has led the charge, but the team needs more snipe to go with their improving D-Zone play.


Thomas Greiss is 11-6-0-1 with a 2.59 gaa and .916Sv%. Robin Lehner is 4-6-0-3 with a 2.66 gaa and .912Sv%. The goaltending hasn’t been losing games and at times, has helped the teams mount impressive comebacks for valuable points. Greiss is 19th in Sv%, Lehner 26th. Several notable goaltenders rank behind the Isles duo. Names like Braden Holtby, Marc-Andre Fleury and Connor Hellebuyck just to name a few. So, what does need to improve at the mid-season mark for the Islanders for them to start making a serious push in the east? More offense? How about a 26th ranked power play, 27th ranked face-off percentage and a 21st ranked penalty kill? How much more can Barzal bring?


The Islanders will not fix their man up play if they continue to stand still and play defense FOR the opposition. I can’t figure out why they don’t cycle and move the puck to regularly create space and force the killers to work hard to preserve the pace of play. It’s been a frustrating process to watch a team who has good offensive weapons struggle to score 5 on 5, but even more when they have a man advantage to work with. This was just as evident in the 4-3 S.O. win against Detroit on Saturday. Per Eric Hornick, “The Isles' power play converted on their sixth attempt (and 14th shot) to improve to 6-63 (9.5%) since November 1; the power play is 2-34 in the last 13 games (with both goals against Detroit) … the power play is 2-34 in the last 13 games (with both goals against Detroit).” Barzal’s 5 on 4 PP tally was the first for the Isles in a month. Shooting the puck could also help. Or will it? New York ranks 29th in the NHL at 28.2 shots per game but faired statistically better when they are outshot. 2-8-1 when outshooting vs 13-3-3 when outgunned. Strange.



Winning a face-off sets the tone for your offense, puts pressure on the defense and gives a team the ability to regularly control play. The Islanders are starting to improve, but there is still much work to be done. Per Eric Hornick, “The Isles won 7 of 10 face-offs on the power play and have won 21 of 26 on the power play over the last four games after winning only 20 of 43 over the prior nine games.” Controlling the puck and staying out of the box should also help the Isles on the stat sheet. The Islanders only allowed 21 shots (6 in O.T.) in their last win and 17 in the 3-2 loss against Vegas 3 days prior. The Isles have allowed 30 shots or fewer in seven consecutive games – Hornick. It’s a start. And keeping the opponents off the man advantage, especially at crucial times is another element that’s had to lead to a better overall result. The Isles have allowed a goal 4 times in the final two minutes of a game. But to their credit and resiliency, they’ve won 3 (CAR, NJ, DET) out those four (TBL) games.


Matt Barzal is doing well 27 points (leads team) in 31 games (6 in last 4 games), but only 4 of those points are goals. Last season’s rookie-of-the-year has to be feeling the pressure of the award and the expectations on himself and the organization this season at just 21 years of age. But I’m sure he wouldn’t have it any other way. He continually out works the opposition and is one of the best in the NHL at drawing penalties. Per Eric Hornick, “Mathew Barzal drew his 16th penalty; moving him into the top-5 in the NHL in that category.  He has drawn 56 penalties since the start of last year (tied for the most in the NHL.” Barzal wants to score goals. He has an OT winner, a PP tally and a game winner, but only a 5.8% shooting percentage. That puts him just 15th out of 22 players (including Ho-Sang) on the current roster. While he continues to evolve his game, situational awareness, cut down on mistakes and listen to his coaches, Barzal should be due for a break out soon. I can only image if the Isles are able to figure out the face-off, PP or PK challenges or especially Barzal breaks loose, what that will open for the team as a whole. A new threat level and some good times for the players, fans and organization. Here’s to positivity and work ethic.


It was great to see the team return to Uniondale and it was just as fun to see the fan response to the Isles gritty play at home. It made an impression on everyone who has watched the action so far. Per Brian Compton, “Trotz: I haven't been in the NY area very long, but there’s a distinct separations. This is Islander Country, plain and simple. They're extremely passionate about their team and where they live and this franchise. We're eager to bring it back to where we want it to be." Isles are 2-0-1 at the sold-out Coliseum so far this season.


The Islanders start a 4-game road trip (COL, ARI, VGK, DAL) tonight before coming back on 12/28 to face Ottawa. They need to steal some points and get themselves dialed in before visiting Tavares and his Maple Leafs on the 29th.



And I am still actively looking for a spot to hold Mid-State NY #Isles meet ups around the Westchester-Hudson Valley area to watch games together. Sorting out possibilities & will post in next week or two. In meantime, ask around & see who would be up to join us.





Isles Notes:


Per Arthur Staple, “Isles on there on their way to Denver. No roster moves so assume Ho-Sang is with them.”


Isles sign D Bode Wilde to three-year, entry level deal.


Per Eric Hornick, “The Isles have now won 76 shootouts, tying the Rangers and Penguins for the most in NHL history. Mathew Barzal is only the second Islander to score in the club's five shootouts this season.  Barzal is now 2/7 all-time in shootouts; both of his goals are game-deciding goals.”


Per Andy Graziano, “Why I don't trust Sorokin is the savior fans are thinking he is....Mikko Koskinen, Anders Nilsson. Per SportsNet, among goalies who played >23 games last year in KHL, 12 had .930 or better. 21 were .925 or better. There are 25 teams in the league.


Per @Csomichapin, “goaltending prospect Jakub #Skarek (2018 draft pick on ELC) has been in goal for 15 #Liiga games this season. 1.90 GAA & .926 SV%. Fantastic for a 19-year old. Looks like a shoe-in for the #CZE #WJC squad. #LikelyStarter?”



NHL Notes:


Per Chris Nichols, “05-6: $39M 06-7: $44M 07-8: $50.3M 08-9: $56.7M 09-10: $56.8M 10-11: $59.4M 11-12: $64.3M 12-13: *$60M; pro-rated $70.2M (*lockout-shortened) 13-14: $64.3M 14-15: $69.0M 15-16: $71.4M 16-17: $73M 17-18: $75M 18-19: $79.5M 19-20: *$83M (*projected).”



Sound Tigers Notes:


The surging and dangerous Bridgeport Sound Tigers are 2nd in Atlantic and 3rd in AHL east with an impressive 17-8-3-1, 38 pt. record.


Mitch Gillam (G) returned on loan to the @RailersHC.